Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 14.544122 17.714880 21.253667 25.473118 30.343227 35.763690 42.227748
2025-04-27 10.202636 14.347353 19.498075 26.265967 34.811656 45.125808 58.385684
2025-05-04 7.893629 12.430491 18.553081 27.193694 38.819813 53.650430 73.689875
2025-05-11 6.271864 10.920714 17.659994 27.758962 42.069769 61.145695 87.938257
2025-05-18 4.916374 9.434940 16.445161 27.546303 44.025295 66.855613 100.008540
2025-05-25 3.767733 7.981161 14.974089 26.654739 44.771212 70.782764 109.719942
2025-06-01 3.007200 6.993336 14.035169 26.376929 46.273326 75.738054 121.002941
2025-06-08 2.295327 5.906474 12.722892 25.278857 46.329118 78.478516 129.143239
2025-06-15 1.978385 5.523722 12.575495 26.073196 49.383613 85.813543 144.314580
2025-06-22 1.543709 4.765390 11.590826 25.260060 49.692233 88.893101 153.198653
2025-06-29 1.357477 4.530156 11.582265 26.189430 52.963822 96.748332 169.677577
2025-07-06 1.002731 3.759602 10.332759 24.619650 51.750614 97.306526 174.796022
2025-07-13 0.842351 3.484696 10.159620 25.241009 54.693699 105.178922 192.457948
2025-07-20 0.709253 3.245652 10.035186 25.970499 57.944620 113.843839 211.981358
2025-07-27 0.607431 3.063633 10.007220 26.886639 61.599429 123.374201 233.328630
2025-08-03 0.507157 2.841079 9.829654 27.446592 64.597107 131.906209 253.373826
2025-08-10 0.398073 2.526758 9.339807 27.235855 66.047909 137.774653 269.185627
2025-08-17 0.293110 2.159150 8.608449 26.352425 66.047893 141.015547 280.635908
2025-08-24 0.225980 1.913225 8.163532 26.077161 67.245833 146.455478 296.049584
2025-08-31 0.159010 1.605838 7.438807 24.989199 66.614352 148.444952 305.485371
2025-09-07 0.135205 1.528150 7.444609 25.776216 70.076913 158.278891 329.141312
2025-09-14 0.096006 1.305230 6.883282 24.970576 69.952102 161.247728 340.618705
2025-09-21 0.082711 1.258130 6.949086 25.891382 73.772031 172.008795 366.548469